The Second Arab Revolution Coming: Arab Rulers, You Have Been Warned!
[By Arezki Daoud | US+508-981-6937] Muamar Gaddafi would not go down without creating collateral damage, not just in his country but also among his fellow dictators. Bashar Al Assad of Syria, Ali Abdallah Saleh of Yemen and so many other Arab rulers have been warned: Find a political solution very soon or risk a bad ending. Arab dictators will now witness an acceleration of public action against them, strengthened by the outcome of the Libyan crisis, call it Arab Revolution Version 2.0.
After going on the offensive to silence their people following the ousting of Ben Ali of Tunisia and Mubarak of Egypt, Arab rulers will likely pause for a moment to assess the news coming out of Libya and they will not like the most likely scenarios. The death of Muamar Gaddafi does not bode well for them at all. The news will send a direct and unequivocal signal to their pro-democracy opponents that while you can run for a while, you may never be able to hide.
Many Arab regimes are in a precarious situation. Syria has been in turmoil for a while and the Libyan’s interim government recognition for the Syrian opposition means that the regime in Damascus should brace for a sustained offensive from the opposition with no end in sight. The conflict there may not be the same as what we saw in Libya, but the destabilization of Syria is now in its advanced stage. The cancer has metastasized.
Same story for Yemen. Dictator Saleh can buy as much time as he wants but the clock is ticking. His promises to relinquish power several times only to rescind them added fuel to the fire in a crisis that led to countless deaths. The killing of Muamar Gaddafi will likely send a shockwave in Yemen as well where the anti-government movement will find it easier to resume its anti-Saleh campaign.
Arab governments from Morocco and Algeria west of MENA, to the Gulf and beyond are on notice. Most with deep pockets are likely to spend more on social programs, higher wages, and half-baked political reforms that would seek to shelter them from public fury. But make no mistake; the train has left the station. Reforms must be comprehensive, starting with a political process that is serious and addresses the rights of citizens, diminished corruption and establishes the rule of law. But even if well-intentioned reforms were to be put in place, the personalities in charged today are barely tolerated by their people, if not hated altogether. New personalities are needed to drive meaningful reform agendas. Until then, expect a new round of turmoil in the Arab world.
Photo of Gaddafi's body in Sirte
