Risk
Analysis, Security Assessment
Tense
Security Situation in North Africa Forces Algeria and Libya
to Talk of Cooperation
The enemy of my enemy is my friend, or so goes the Arab
proverb that fits so well with the current state of North
Africa’s security environment. Often at odds with each
other, Algeria and Libya are forced to cooperate, now that
they have a common enemy. The most recent indication of
a rapprochement between the two in the defense arena was
the high-profile visit to Tripoli last week of the Algerian
army chief, General Ahmed Gaid Salah. The General met with
senior Libyan defense officials, including Major General
Aboubakr Younes Djaber. In a statement, Djaber said that
the “Libyan military is willing and eager to cooperate
with its Algerian counterpart in the interest of their peoples
and of the African Union.” This statement is a clear
indication that the two countries are not only speaking
about securing their own territories but also beyond and
into the lawless and vast Sahel territory. [read
here]
ENERGY/MINING
Libya
Attracts Oil Industry Heavyweights
With
its oil and gas riches, Libya remains a hot destination for
executives from around the world eager to grab a piece of
the action. And many of the companies that managed to find
their way into Tripoli did not hesitate to use their political
contacts to help. [read
here]
ECONOMY
AND TRADE
Shrinking
Trade between Libya and Morocco but Opportunities Abound
Despite
the growing economic profile of Libya, Morocco has not been
able to benefit from this trend and if anything, the two countries’
trade activity has been reduced to bear minimum. When one
would expect trade between these two Maghreb nations to rise,
it actually dropped considerably. From 2001 to 2005, Morocco’s
exports to Libya collapsed by a massive 74%, while Libya’s
exports to Morocco also fell by a strong 21%. [read
here]
ECONOMY
AND TRADE
Uncertainty over Economic Growth Outlook
in Morocco as Malaise Sets In
Optimism
in the economy has been eroding lately in Morocco. While no
one is insisting with certainty about an economic slowdown,
the various signs and negative factors of growth are visible,
affecting the moods in the business world. Although in the
first quarter many corporate leaders were upbeat about business
outlook, their subsequent assessments were less positive as
activity has been on a slowing path. [read
here]
ECONOMY
AND TRADE
Algeria
Confronted with Growing EU Imports Almost two Years after
their Assoc, Agreement is Lauched
Three months before Algeria and the EU celebrate the second
anniversary of the start of their association agreement and
dissenting voices in the North African nation are characterizing
the experience as a failure. More pessimistic views are likely
to emerge as we approach the September 1st anniversary date.
Their arguments centered on the lack of growth of Algeria’s
non-hydrocarbon exports to Europe, but in fact noticing an
actual contraction of exports to markets across the Mediterranean.
[read
here]
AGRICULTURE/TOURISM
Drought to Reduce Agricultural Output
and Limit Economic Growth in Morocco
The
agricultural season of 2007 will not end as the Moroccan farmers
and the government want it. This is because this year’s
drought will undoubtedly affect harvest by reducing output,
with the usual consequences on economic growth. At best, cereal
production could reach 2.5 million tons and most cereal farmers
are already in a state of despair since they now see their
harvest campaign to be the worst in 40 years. The early harvesting
work confirms the farmers’ expectations and fears. In
the fertile Doukkala region, the farmers who were used to
harvesting an average of 4.5 tons per hectare of land are
now expecting no more than 3.5 tons, even using the latest
farming techniques. [read
here]
INDUSTRIES
/ MARKET
Higher Penetration of Internet Broadband
into Mainstream and the Extinction of Cybercafés in Morocco
Cybercafés
in Morocco are facing extinction. The rise of home broadband,
driven by higher penetration of ADSL with its declining prices,
is the main reason for the pending death of the cybercafé
industry in the North African nation. With 400,000 ADSL subscriptions
for both businesses and households, cybercafés core
customer base is shrinking at a fast pace while the number
of such public outlets has been growing, adding more competitive
pressure on the sector itself. [read
here]
