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ANALYSIS

By Arezki Daoud

The Next American President:

What Should the Maghreb Expect

With a new tenant in the White House, the American policy toward the Maghreb is likely to undergo some important retooling in 2009. The magnitude of the changes is unclear as the new American adminis-tration will probably view the region through old and new lenses.

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Energy/Mining Industries/Markets
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208th. issue - July 2, 2008

Morocco, Tunisia: Not Giving up on Oil and Gas

It has been eight years since the Talsint debacle took place. In the year 2000, the Moroccan public awakened with the news that oil was discovered in the Talsint region, only to learn later that the news was bogus. Despite this setback and a dry underground, the Moroccans remain persistent in looking for oil and gas. In Tunisia, $2.1 billion will be invested in exploration this year to produce 8.4 million tons of petroleum equivalent on the crude oil, up from 5.6 million in 2005.

A Fragile Environement
BLUEFIN TUNA

Bluefin Tuna Fishing in Algeria: Under the Radar Screen

The stocks of bluefin tuna along the Algerian Mediterranean coast are quickly depleting. Over fishing and capture practices that some qualify as savage hunting are all leading to fast the disappearance of tuna stocks in the whole Med region. Of a particular worry is the aggressive stance of industrial fishing fleets from Europe and Asia that do not hesitate to seek and capture tuna even in the reproductive zone of the Gulf of Syrte, offshore Libya. Because of the profitable nature of this activity, fraud and lack of transparency are paramount and unscrupulous individuals are operating tuna export businesses without being checked or controlled.

Scarcity of Tuna Hits Moroccan Canning Industry

The tuna canning industry in Morocco is in disarray. Canning companies are facing enormous pressure, driven by collapsing catches and record prices in the import market. Well-known canning companies are not spared from the troubled tuna sector. Having been a popular kitchen item for so long, the bright orange Tam tuna can is nowhere to be found in Moroccan markets. Owned by the Marica Company, the production line for Tam stopped operating some three months ago. The Cosarno Company in Agadir, which owns the Isabel brand, gave up tuna canning several years ago. The next one to go is most likely the Laayoune-based Calvo, which has reduced production to bare minimum.

Ouyahia Returns to Power, Re-appointed PM of the Algerian Cabinet

After his ousting from the premiership in 2006, Ahmed Ouyahia has been recalled to fix the broken machinery of the administration. Reappointed Prime Minister last week, Ouyahia replaces the conservative Abdelaziz Belkhadem who led to a stunning declining performance of the Algerian economy and the administration despite record oil and gas revenues.

Structural and Administrative Issues and Declining Demand Hinder Morocco’s Travel Industry

The tourism industry in Morocco is facing a potential crisis as activity is showing signs of softening. So much so that the newly appointed prime minister Abbas El-Fassi recently held a special meeting with industry officials, including the new tourism minister Mohamed Boussaid, and the freshly appointed head of the tourism authority ONMT, Abdelhamid Haddou.

Germany's RWE Dea Aggressive Stance in North Africa

Germany’s RWE Dea has been busy competing for exploration rights in North Africa. While its more traditional focus has been on Egypt, Libya and Algeria, it has recently managed to enter the Mauritanian exploration sector by acquiring a 30 % interest from Repsol YPF (operator) in the onshore blocks Ta09 and Ta10. The transaction was approved by the Ministry of Petroleum and Mining in Nouakchott on June 8th, 2008.

Global Demand, Domestic Speculation and the Rise in Construction Materials Prices in Morocco

Real estate prices were expected to stabilize in Morocco but recent reports show that such stabilization may not occur afterwards. What is driving prices further up is the sustained and unprecedented rise in building and construction materials prices. Cement, steel, glass panels, aluminum, wood and other materials used in the construction sector have seen new spikes in prices in Morocco, particularly accelerating since June 1, 2008. Tension in the global market is what is pushing prices up in Morocco. But global demand alone cannot be blamed for the unusual price evolutions seen in the North African country.

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