Al
Qaeda in the Sahel:
Security
Risk Grows as Rift Divides West and North African Governments
Obama’s
Blacklisting of North Africa Nations is a Setback to Anti-Terror
Efforts
The
failed December 25, 2009 bombing of an Amsterdam-to-Detroit
flight by a Nigerian man has forced US security and the intelligence
organizations to move on overdrive. Seeking to prevent a repeat
of such attempt, the US government black-listed a dozen countries
which citizens will be subjected to more scrutiny during their
travel to the US. US security officials also convinced their
European counterparts to join in on tightening security and
in January 2010 Janet Napolitano, the American Secretary of
the Department of Homeland Security held a US-European security
meeting in the Spanish city of Toledo to discuss coordination
matters and to draft a common approach to airline security.
This chain of events has led to the tightening of security
measures against nationals of various countries, including
Algeria and Libya. However, the move has led to an immediate
reaction from North African governments, including Libya’s
further restricting travel to Europeans pending upcoming measures,
and Algeria’s pushing for more diplomatic tension with
France, which sided with the US on a decision that is very
unpopular in Algeria. The net effect means that the critical
cooperation on the security front that has built over the
years has now made many steps backwards. In the meantime,
Al Qaeda North Africa continues to expand and efforts are
underway to win fresh recruits form desolated areas like Kidal
in Mali and Jao in Nigeria. At the time when expanding security
capabilities in the Sahel in a coordinated manner and without
any fuss should have been a priority to fight Al Qaeda, the
American and European governments’ kneejerk and panicky
reaction following the failed Christmas bombing is likely
to have more negative consequences than expected. Anti-terrorism
cooperation with the front line nations of North Africa is
highly compromised as politics and amateurish diplomacy continue
to weigh down on opportunities for progress on the security
front.
Continue
here.
Corporate Affairs
HSBC
in North Africa: Going Where the Money Is
In
summer 2008, London-based HSBC, one of the world’s
largest banking and financial services institutions decided
to add Algeria to its list of emerging markets operations.
Libya is likely next in line. The decision meant that as
of August 2008, the giant bank entered the Algerian market
where it launched what it called “a full-service bank,”
it named HSBC Algeria. With 70 employees, HSBC Algeria began
offering a suite of commercial and corporate banking services
and limited products for individuals, essentially under
the banner of wealth management. The bank, however, is seen
as following the footsteps of Chinese and other Asian businesses
that are operating in North Africa and indeed in the entire
continent. By doing so, HSBC seems to focus on what emerging
regions such as North Africa are beginning to dislike, and
that is servicing the less risky export-import and trading
operations, and avoiding direct investments in form of funding
national economies by providing financing to enterprises
and industries. Instead, as the bank’s general policies
on emerging markets hint, what matters is contributing to
trade and commerce, where there is obviously less value
creation than in other sectors of the economy. In assessing
the bank’s performance in the region, The North Africa
Journal made efforts to reach to company, but never received
any follow up for such requests. While the bank is keen
on having a presence in so-called “emerging markets,”
it is ironic that it has limited to no-presence in the more
integrated economies of Morocco and Tunisia, for example.
May be the lack of energy resources and oil and gas commodities
make these countries less “emerging”? Continue
here.
The
King is Gone, Long Live the King!
For
the Libyan leader Muamar Kaddafi there is a sense of déjà-vu
again. His campaign to get a second term as head of the African
Union collapsed, showing that like in his previous call to
unify the Arabs, his latest African venture also failed. At
the end, the Tunisian support was irrelevant in front of the
voices of mighty South Africa and Nigeria, which in addition
to many African countries were not willing to allow Kaddafi
the idea that he could perpetuate his reign over the continent.
Kaddafi will have to spend some time reassessing what’s
next for him, but as he loses the title of African King, he
is now looking for ways to guarantee a smooth succession as
the next Libyan leader for one of his sons. The King is Gone,
Long Live the King. Continue
here.
Road
to Succession in Libya: Saadi Kaddafi Eclipsed by his Brothers
On
the road to succession in Libya, Saadi Kaddafi seems to have
no chance to replace his father. With Seif El-Islam forging
ahead, followed by Mootassem, also known as Hannibal, Saadi,
the man who wanted to become a football star is nowhere to
be found and living a seemingly trouble-free life.
The
Politics of Financial Crimes
The
Algerian military intelligence services have taken the unusual
step of bringing major white-collar crimes to national courts
and onto the public domain. These days, Algeria has several
high-profile corruption cases, a record in fact, involving
such leading institutions as oil giant Sonatrach, the highway
administration, the ferrous and non-ferrous industry and other
key sectors of the economy. What
is unusual this time is not just the profiles of the cases
themselves, although very interesting, but more about the
role of the intelligence branch of the military known as Département
du Renseignement et de la Sécurité (DRS). The
DRS seems to have been acting faster than its civilian counterpart,
the Inspection Générale des Finances (IGF),
in bringing to justice alleged wrongdoers. And that brings
an interesting question about the motives of the DRS. Continue
here.
Corporate
Performance: Morocco’s Banque Populaire Group
CFG
has revised upward its 2009 net income estimate of Banque
Populaire Group to MAD 1.20 billion, a solid 45.4% increase
from 2008. For 2010, net income should stand at MAD 1.31 billion,
up 9%. The bank's market shares stood at 22.3% at end June
2009 (vs. 25.4% at end 2008) for loans and 27.2% for deposits
(vs. 26.5% at end 2008). To read the Analyst's report follow
this link: Continue
here.
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