the north africa journal

CRISIS IN LIBYA

The Culture of the Colonel


ONGOING TWEETS

Audio-Video Files

Colin Kilkelly on Bahrain and Libya


Related Analyses

Not a Happy New Year for All
The Good and the Bad





















February to April 2011

 

Defection of Moussa Koussa Means
the Gaddafi Regime is Crumbling

The defection of Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa is indicative of a regime that is steadily and surely collapsing. Koussa is not a man who gives up easily, and if and when he does it simply means there is nothing else to gain by staying with his boss. Indeed Moussa Koussa defected on Wednesday when he decided to leave for London. Koussa is one of Gaddafi’s closest aids. He is as close as one can get to the mad man of North Africa. With him and others surrounding Gaddafi leaving, it confirms our earlier prediction of a regime that is bound to slowly extinguish itself like a fire dying without oxygen. Continue here.


With Ben Ali on the Run and Gaddafi Fighting for his Life is a Unified Maghreb a Fading Dream?

All eyes are currently focused on the revolutions taking place in the Middle East and North Africa. It started with mini rumblings in Algeria over the price of foods and a housing distribution program gone bad during the month of December 2010. The wave of discontent quickly progressed to Tunisia, then Egypt, now Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, Jordan, and even the sheltered Saudi Arabia. No Arab ruler and beyond feel so vulnerable. Continue here.


Security Council OKs No-Fly Zone over Libya,
World Rallies against Gaddafi

March 15, 2011

 

A Tumultuous North Africa
March 15, 2011






March 6, 2011
Can Shokri Ghanem Step In and Should Libya Become a Federated State?

By Arezki Daoud and Alessandro Bruno | daoud@north-africa.com | US+508-981-6937 - Skype: arezki.daoud

As Libya slides down the abyss of protracted political turmoil, the main question remains who will succeed the leadership of Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi. Unlike Egypt and Tunisia, Libya has no viable institutions, including the army, able to act as a glue and pilot a transition period. Qadhafi is not the president of Libya in the same way that Ben Ali or Mubarak were in Tunisia and Egypt. Qadhafi’s official role is ‘Brother leader of the Fatah Revolution’, a role that has no possible successor. Continue here.



Feb. 21, 2011
Muamar Ghaddafi and
his Bloody Finishing

By Arezki Daoud | daoud@north-africa.com | US+508-981-6937
Skype: arezki.daoud


Can Muamar Ghaddafi really make it until March or will the Arab revolution add a new name in its February head-hunting list? It looks as if four decades of Muamar’s reign of terror are coming to an end. Many of his key diplomats have resigned and have been mounting a media attack against him. His representatives abroad no longer represent him. At home, he is no doubt currently looking for a new place to land and I have the weird feeling that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia will come to the rescue of his brotherly dictator like he did for Ben Ali and Mubarak. Muamar's exit though is not without turmoil. On the ground, the Libyan people are facing”genocide", a term used by Ibrahim Dabbashim, the second man in command in the Libyan mission in the UN. Continue here.


Decoding the Ghaddafi Speech?

In this article, Arezki Daoud shares his views of the Ghaddafi's Feb. 22 speech with National Post newspaper. [PDF download]


Witnessing his Downfall

These pages are refreshed on the regular basis as the situation develops in Egypt. Please bookmark it and visit often.


Saturday, Feb 22, 2011
Ghaddafi’s Obscure Exit Plan and Tribe Alliance against him Spell Trouble for Libyan Oil Fields

By Arezki Daoud | daoud@north-africa.com | US+508-981-6937
Skype: arezki.daoud

While Libya’s share of the world energy sector is not substantial in itself, it maintains some 10% market share of the European Union’s imports and that’s not a small number. The Libyans have been aggressive expanding their reach of international markets as they continued to raise production. They have made substantial inroads in the Southern Europe, in particular Italy, as well as Germany. So any protracted disruption to production or along the supply chain could cause sustained stress in the international oil markets. The enfolding drama in Libya could have a much bigger damaging effect due to market psychology, and today the news from Libya is not good. Continue here.


Saturday, Feb 20, 2011
No Easy Options Even after Muamar Ghaddafi is Gone
By Alessandro Bruno and Arezki Daoud | daoud@north-africa.com | US+508-981-6937 - Skype: arezki.daoud


Alessandro Bruno and Arezki Daoud] During his 41 years in power, Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi has built an idiosyncratic system of governance that is so unique that in the face of an unprecedented crisis, it could only collapse. There is no continuity built into the system. Qadhafi holds no official position or title; he has simply been the Brother Leader of the Revolution, or the Guide; he has never been the president, as some analysts have erroneously called him. However, while western governments (and surely many Libyans) are bewildered by the Libyan system, in the same way one would be curious about a train wreck, Qadhafi has proven on several occasions that he is no ordinary fool. Continue here.


Feb 17, 2011 | By Arezki Daoud
Revolt in Libya, Toughening Regime

Arab fury has reached Libya, a country we expected to withstand the storm given the nature of its political landscape. But Benghazi showed once again that it can revolt if its people are repressed and are given the opportunity to raise their voices. Thursday, the unrest expanded outside of Banghazi, and on Friday, the funerals of those who were killed in the events could further escalate the crisis after the Friday prayers. Meanwhile, the regime is currently deploying a large number of police forces to contain the population ahead of the Friday prayers. Continue here.


Jan 28, 2011 | By Arezki Daoud
State of Disarray in the Arab World, Divided Western Response


North Africa in 2011 is not that of 2010 and prior. Tunisia has made history and now the Arab world, starting with North Africa is in turmoil. All of a sudden, talk of economic growth takes the back seat. It's no longer about the economy but about what's coming next from the political front. After the unexpected and speedy collapse of the Ben Ali regime, governments in neighboring countries are facing full-blown rebellions. The Tunisian bug is spreading like a fast moving flu and the Arab regimes are running out of vaccines to deal with it, except to flex their muscles to repress their people. Algeria, Yemen, and more drastically Egypt, to name the most visible stories of the day are facing unprecedented popular action to oust their aging and out-of-touch political leaders. Continue here.


 

 

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