The defection of Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa is
indicative of a regime that is steadily and surely collapsing.
Koussa is not a man who gives up easily, and if and when
he does it simply means there is nothing else to gain by
staying with his boss. Indeed Moussa Koussa defected on
Wednesday when he decided to leave for London. Koussa is
one of Gaddafi’s closest aids. He is as close as one
can get to the mad man of North Africa. With him and others
surrounding Gaddafi leaving, it confirms our earlier prediction
of a regime that is bound to slowly extinguish itself like
a fire dying without oxygen. Continue
here.
All
eyes are currently focused on the revolutions taking place
in the Middle East and North Africa. It started with mini
rumblings in Algeria over the price of foods and a housing
distribution program gone bad during the month of December
2010. The wave of discontent quickly progressed to Tunisia,
then Egypt, now Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, Jordan, and even
the sheltered Saudi Arabia. No Arab ruler and beyond feel
so vulnerable. Continue
here.
By
Arezki Daoud and Alessandro Bruno | daoud@north-africa.com
| US+508-981-6937 - Skype: arezki.daoud
As
Libya slides down the abyss of protracted political turmoil,
the main question remains who will succeed the leadership
of Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi. Unlike Egypt and Tunisia,
Libya has no viable institutions, including the army, able
to act as a glue and pilot a transition period. Qadhafi
is not the president of Libya in the same way that Ben Ali
or Mubarak were in Tunisia and Egypt. Qadhafi’s official
role is ‘Brother leader of the Fatah Revolution’,
a role that has no possible successor. Continue
here.
Can
Muamar Ghaddafi really make it until March or will the Arab
revolution add a new name in its February head-hunting list?
It looks as if four decades of Muamar’s reign of terror
are coming to an end. Many of his key diplomats have resigned
and have been mounting a media attack against him. His representatives
abroad no longer represent him. At home, he is no doubt
currently looking for a new place to land and I have the
weird feeling that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia will come
to the rescue of his brotherly dictator like he did for
Ben Ali and Mubarak. Muamar's exit though is not without
turmoil. On the ground, the Libyan people are facing”genocide",
a term used by Ibrahim Dabbashim, the second man in command
in the Libyan mission in the UN. Continue
here.
While
Libya’s share of the world energy sector is not
substantial in itself, it maintains some 10% market share
of the European Union’s imports and that’s
not a small number. The Libyans have been aggressive expanding
their reach of international markets as they continued
to raise production. They have made substantial inroads
in the Southern Europe, in particular Italy, as well as
Germany. So any protracted disruption to production or
along the supply chain could cause sustained stress in
the international oil markets. The enfolding drama in
Libya could have a much bigger damaging effect due to
market psychology, and today the news from Libya is not
good. Continue
here.
Alessandro
Bruno and Arezki Daoud] During his 41 years in power, Mu’ammar
al-Qadhafi has built an idiosyncratic system of governance
that is so unique that in the face of an unprecedented crisis,
it could only collapse. There is no continuity built into
the system. Qadhafi holds no official position or title;
he has simply been the Brother Leader of the Revolution,
or the Guide; he has never been the president, as some analysts
have erroneously called him. However, while western governments
(and surely many Libyans) are bewildered by the Libyan system,
in the same way one would be curious about a train wreck,
Qadhafi has proven on several occasions that he is no ordinary
fool. Continue
here.
Arab
fury has reached Libya, a country we expected to withstand
the storm given the nature of its political landscape. But
Benghazi showed once again that it can revolt if its people
are repressed and are given the opportunity to raise their
voices. Thursday, the unrest expanded outside of Banghazi,
and on Friday, the funerals of those who were killed in
the events could further escalate the crisis after the Friday
prayers. Meanwhile, the regime is currently deploying a
large number of police forces to contain the population
ahead of the Friday prayers. Continue
here.
North Africa in 2011 is not that of 2010 and prior. Tunisia
has made history and now the Arab world, starting with
North Africa is in turmoil. All of a sudden, talk of economic
growth takes the back seat. It's no longer about the economy
but about what's coming next from the political front.
After the unexpected and speedy collapse of the Ben Ali
regime, governments in neighboring countries are facing
full-blown rebellions. The Tunisian bug is spreading like
a fast moving flu and the Arab regimes are running out
of vaccines to deal with it, except to flex their muscles
to repress their people. Algeria, Yemen, and more drastically
Egypt, to name the most visible stories of the day are
facing unprecedented popular action to oust their aging
and out-of-touch political leaders. Continue
here.