Civil
War in Libya:
From the Euphoria of a Revolution to
a Protracted Conflict
The plot is set. Muamar Gaddafi cannot leave his country without
risking an immediate arrest. He cannot give up Tripoli easily
or else he will find himself without hostages and risk being
killed by the Libyan people. Cornered as a mad beast, he has
nowhere to go and will fight until the last bullet as his
son promised. With that in mind, unless a miracle happens,
like a foreign military intervention, the Libyan civil war
could go on for a long while. For
now, Muamar Gaddafi is entrenched in his bunker in Tripoli
and makes the occasional trip outside to meet and greet his
supporters or take interviews with foreign reporters. Foreign
pressure, although continuously mounting, is not enough to
convince him that he is no longer a legitimate ruler. Within
the country, confusion dominates. One day it is the euphoria
in Benghazi, the next is fear of an offensive from the loyalists
of the dictator. Despite the difficulty to predict what the
outcome is, some elements of the Libyan civil war point us
to the most likely scenario and that is the bloody end of
the Gaddafi era. Continue
here.
Global
Investors Reassessing their MENA Posture:
Investments in the Region Likely to
Drop Considerably
Ever
since former President Ben Ali was toppled by the Tunisian
people, risk management and assessment executives in global
corporations have been working around the clock to figure
out what posture to take. The subsequent events that followed
in form of a domino effect, starting with the deterioration
of the Egyptian market, then the acceleration of risk in Libya
as that country exploded forced corporations to halt operations,
evacuate foreign staffs out of the danger zones, and reevaluate
where they stood. Continue
here.
The
King of Morocco’s Reform Speech:
Good First Step, but Many More Needed
to Comply with Youth Demands
The
King of Morocco gave this week a highly anticipated speech
on his political reform agenda. Although no doubt the speech
provided some positive news and is moving Morocco one step
forward, many more steps are needed to fulfill and comply
with the legitimate demands of Morocco’s youth. As Mohamed
VI said in his speech “I call on everyone to continue
contributing to this general plan to bring it to maturity,
through a wide-ranging, constructive national debate,”
well then, let’s start the debate. In
this early engagement from the Moroccan monarch, some of our
first reactions to what was proposed...Continue
here.
The
Tunisia Military:
An Honorable Institution with Revenge
in Mind
The
Tunisian defense forces acted honorably as their country faced
a major political crisis. By deciding not to intervene, General
Rachid Ammar and his men and women in uniform showed unparallel
professionalism that most Arab countries’ military lack.
By doing so, they accelerate the demise of the dictator, responding
to the wishes of the Tunisian people. Continue
here.
Competing
for Resources:
The Russians to Search
for Uranium in Niger, Threatening the Dominance of France’s
Areva
Areva,
the French uranium giant has greeted 2011 with a series of
crippling problems. After an alleged Al Qaeda kidnapping of
five of its workers in Niger, and a direct threat to its operations
in the region, it is now witnessing increased competition
for uranium from an equally giant firm, Gazprombank NGS, a
subsidiary of the colossal Russian oil firm Gazprom. Continue
here.
Guilty
by Association or Corporate Misconduct?
France Telecom in Hot Water over Allegations
of Wrongdoing in Tunisia
Key
French government officials are not the only ones targeted
by the media over their dealings with the Ben Ali regime.
Businesses are starting to feel the scrutiny shifting toward
them. The way Orange, a unit of France Telecom was introduced
in Tunisia is the subject of heated articles in the French
press these days. The telecom giant has been accused by the
investigative site Owni.fr of overpaying for the right to
operate the Orange mobile license, currently with 750,000
subscribers, essentially to benefit the entourage of the disgraced
ex president. Owni says it suspected that France Telecom gave
gifts to Marouane Mabrouk, the son in law of Ben Ali, allegations
that have been flatly denied by the company. Continue
here.
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ANALYSIS
North
Africa’s Defense Expenditure:
Serious Concerns or Legitimate Spending?
After
the Quake in Japan,
Is North Africa Ready?
Niger
Presidential Election Results:
Yet another Victory for Muamar Gaddafi
