Libya Year One
The
Impassable Road to Stability
Islamists in Libya were always staunched enemies of the
Gaddafi regime. Muamar Gaddafi spent millions of dollars
either fighting them or paying them to gain their loyalty.
One of the very last acts he did as the rebellion started
in Benghazi was to release from jail a group of Islamist
militants and gave them money to buy their support. The
power of Islamists in Libya remains largely unproven and
the country continues to face political uncertainty and
instability. The Libyan society remains largely conservative
but the extremist religion sentiment is generally not widespread.
At least not yet! But as the revolution toppled the Gaddafis,
Islamist voices became more vocal to the point that the
then Interim Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril highlighted the
importance of religious rules in the Libyan legal and government
context...
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Islamists in North African Governance:
Assessment
Tunisia’s
Islamists: Will the Honeymoon Period End Abruptly?
The Islamist Ennahda Party
is in control in Tunisia. After being denied political rights
under the Ben Ali dictatorship for almost a quarter century,
and a severe crackdown of its members, the Ennahda Party
won the majority of seats in the Tunisian interim parliament
called the Constituent Assembly, or National Constituent
Assembly (NCA), following elections that took place on October
23, 2011. As Ennahda officials pave their way into governance,
all eyes are focused on them. They are being scrutinized
to see whether they will lead Tunisia into another Iran-like
system or they will adopt the Turkish model. Many Tunisians
see a third way, perhaps by creating a truly unique Tunisian
model. Some hope that setting aside ideology, the economic
model will remain unchanged. Continue
here.
Islamists
in Tunisia Facing Front-and-Center Challenges to the Economy,
Security and Civil Liberties
The Tunisian Islamist party
Ennahda and its two allies in the governing coalition, the
Ettakatol Party (Democratic Forum for Labor and Liberties)
and the CPR (Congress for the Republic) have less than a
year to prove that they can move Tunisia forward. But so
far, after a landslide victory in the elections that enabled
Ennahda to win interim leadership, its image suffers from
lack of progress and missteps while facing daunting tasks.
Continue
here.
Morocco
Spends More on Subsidies to Ease Public Opinion on the Political
Front
The Moroccans have had their
quiet revolution. No drama like Tunisia or Libya, but the
regime and the monarchy have taken notice. With public anger
boiling at some point over the issue of democracy, Morocco
had its near-miss moment. With a clever announcement of
changes in the constitution, largely of cosmetic nature,
King Mohammed VI swiftly aborted a potential catastrophe,
avoiding the sort of fate that the former leaders of Egypt,
Tunisia, Libya, Yemen and now Syria have met. Fresh elections
enabled the so-called “moderate” Islamist organization
of the Justice and Development Party (PJD) to win a majority
position in Parliament, subsequently enabling it to form
a government with its leader Abdelillah Benkirane as Prime
Minister. But unlike Tunisia and Libya, the move into a
“new governing system” in Morocco has been much
more controlled. The King continues to do what he does best,
and that is to be the uncontested ruler. The Benkirane cabinet
has a few ministers who were appointed by the King, and
their positions are not insignificant. In the Interior Ministry,
the ministry in charge of police and security, the King
imposed Mohand Laenser, a close ally but also a leading
member of the Mouvement Populaire party. The economy and
finance are handled by Nizar Baraka, not from the PJD but
from the Istiqlal Party. But as Benkirane and his team enter
the halls of governance, the challenges they are facing
are enormous. The economy displays rather alarming mix signals.
At first, the broad economy looks healthy enough to claim
that Morocco is the exception. A closer look however, shows
that the government is making enormous sacrifices and dangerous
choices to buy peace of mind. Continue
here.
Algeria:
The Difficult Birth of a Moderate Islamist Political Coalition
While Islamists in Tunisia,
Morocco and Egypt have made inroads in the area of governance,
which remain to be fully tested, their Algerian counterparts
still remain largely in the opposition. Energized by the
outcome of the various elections in the region, Algeria’s
various legal Islamist parties seem to be working to coordinate
a common approach. But a closer look at their position reveals
that they are in competition against one another for leadership
as Algerians get closer to their May 2012 election season.
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here.
Rise
of Conservatism in North Africa: Women May be first Targets
On a Facebook post, Siham,
a young Tunisian woman noted that “50 years after
the promulgation of the individual person’s law (Statut
Personnel), we are still discussing the issues of the Nikab
(veil for Muslim women), the issue of prayer, mosques, gender
equality, polygamy and women’s rights. And I thought
we fixed these issues a long time ago.” Siham’s
note illustrates how worried many are regarding the uncertain
fate of women and their rights in Tunisia. The future of
women is once again front and center amid substantial political
change in the region, in particular in Tunisia, which recently
endorsed an Islamist party to govern the nation.
Continue
here.
Corporate Affairs
SNC-Lavalin:
Collateral Damage of Dealing with Dictatorships
Damage
control and reputational risk are a few things the Canadian
engineering giant SNC-Lavalin is currently experiencing
firsthand. As the company celebrates one hundred years of
business, it is facing unprecedented scrutiny related to
its dealings with the Gaddafi family of Libya. Key senior
executives have already lost their jobs as the company is
going through damage control, and construction contracts
in other parts of the world are being questioned. Now, a
former Canadian ambassador to Tripoli could be dragged down
into this affair, as the press continues to dig deep into
corporate dealings that have gone bad like a Hollywood movie
plot. The cost of doing business in Libya has suddenly increased
rapidly for the company and its troubles may not be over...
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French Presidential Elections
Renault
Assembly Plant in Morocco at the Center of French Presidential
Campaigning
The
opening by French company Renault of an auto assembly plant
in Tangier, Morocco is the subject of an interesting debate
in France, which is in the middle of a presidential election
campaign season. The Tangier plant will employ some 6,000
full-time jobs and could be responsible for a broad employment
figure of 30,000. The plant will assemble and export between
150,000 and 170,000 so-called low-cost cars...
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