232nd Issue: March 2013 ---- Download full PDF version here

 

Special Report: Turmoil in the Sahel

Libya and Niger: the Jihadists Next Targets

The announcement made by the Chadian authorities on the alleged death of Mokhtar Belmokhtar was greeted by the international anti-terrorism community with both a sense of hope and pessimism. News of his death did not convince. So far neither France nor the United States or Algeria have confirmed the news and as time goes, it would be prudent for everyone to assume that the Al-Qaeda affiliated leader is still alive and active. Continue here | Click here to subscribe

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Damage Control in Northern Mali: Why Mali Government Forces are not Allowed to Fight in Kidal

Kidal in the north of Mali is central to the Franco-African offensive against the Islamists. Kidal is important because it is the capital of a major region called Adrar des Ifoghas, a region that quickly fell in the hands of the Islamists several months back. But in the course of the offensive against them, France, which calls the shots and decides on both the strategic goals of the offensive, and the tactical steps to get there, has sidelined the Malian army and is seemingly preventing it from contributing to the fight. Instead, the French have picked troops from Chad to help with the offensive. Continue here | Click here to subscribe

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Little Afghanistan in Northeast Mali

Situated in the northeast of Mali, this rocky landscape is formed of natural hideouts , and many of these caves were man-made precisely for protection purposes. The name of Adrar des Ifoghas is unmistakably Berber as the region has always been a land of the Touaregs. Ifoghas is simply the name of the Touareg tribe that dominates the region. Ifoghas means mountain in the local Berber language. The local Touareg community has now confirmed that it is front and center in the conflict, in particular considering that the head of the Islamist group Ansar Eddine, Iyad Ag Ghaly, is originally from here. Continue | Click here to subscribe

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Chad's Soldiers in Mali Feeling Lonely

As the French air force bombs Adrar des Ifoghas in northeast Mali, the Chadian government has been vocal about the role its soldiers are playing in supporting the French offensive. While preventing the Mali military from being involved in Touareg land to avoid a potential disaster, the French have been increasingly counting on the Chadian army to clear the ground by engaging the Islamist fighters directly. Continue | Click here to subscribe

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Inaptitude and Rampant Corruption in the Government Fuel Conflicts in Mali

For decades, the reckless and often racist behavior of the government in Bamako has been fueling the conflict with the Touareg tribes of the north. Lack of economic opportunity in the Touareg land breeds massive poverty, and the Mali military has always been active in the region to repress any complaints or efforts by the locals to resist the central government. One war after another that ravaged the local populations for decades were apparently not sufficient red flags for the Malians themselves, as well as the regional leaders and the international community to seek an urgent solution to the Touareg crisis. Today, the conflict has exploded, threatening to spill over neighboring countries, including Algeria where already Arab and Black Touaregs are starting to fight against one another as the Mali crisis drives a dangerous wedge between them. Continue here | Click here to subscribe

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Senegal: the Next Shoe to Drop

As French travel and tourism security consultants look at the Sahel, North and West Africa and analyze the geopolitics of the region, the red, color code of risk, keeps expanding. Every month for quite some time now, their map of the region has been progressively shifting colors and getting hotter, from yellow to orange, and more recently to red. As such, they can only recommend their customers drop these red zones so long as the red color dominates and the risk factor keeps growing. Continue here | Click here to subscribe

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Algeria Bracing for More Military Action

The Jihadists earlier offensive in Mali and their attack of In-Amenas have set in motion a swift and deadly response from the regional players, aided by Western powers. As we wrote on January 16, 2013, while having excessive blind faith in their ability to execute, the rogue organizations of Ansar Dine, MUJAO and Al-Qaeda, as well as their patrons wherever they may be, have made a substantial miscalculation when they decided to expand their offensive toward Bamako in an effort to control the Southern territories of Mali. That set into motion a swift reaction from France, which not only stopped the southbound movement of the Jihadists, but also managed to undo a great deal of the progress they have made up in the north of Mali in Azawad land. Continue here | Click here to subscribe

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Tension Rising Between Arabs Tribes and Black Touaregs in Southern Algeria

With a complex web involving the Touaregs in north Mali, Islamist fighters of Arab origin, the presence of Al Qaeda, and the French aided by African troops, worrisome signs of a spillover from the Mali war mean the conflict could escalate beyond that country's borders. In Senegal, the government is very concerned that its territory could become the next zone of conflict as an influx of Jihadists make their way there. In neighboring Niger, although very little is being reported there, the country is the perfect place for the Jihadists to move next. With a lot of French interests at stake, especially in the uranium and mining sector, in a nation that has a broke and broken government, the Jihadists likely have Niger on their radar screen. Continue here | Click here to subscribe

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