Politics
South Sudanese Independence and its Regional Implications
The prospect of renewed tensions, and possibly war, between North and South Sudan remains high. Even while the split between South and North has been generally peaceful, the emergence of a new state in east-central Africa will carry important implications and risks for the region and beyond, as well as the Sudanese government will manage the persisting tensions in the Darfur region.
[Security and Politics] Morocco's Draft Constitution: Much Ado about Nothing
[By Arezki daoud | The North Africa Journal | daoud@north-africa.com | US+508-981-6937] The Moroccan people are holding their breath on what's coming on the political front. Insiders involved in the political reform with front seat view of a proposed draft of the new constitution promised by the King say this one is a "game changer." Many even go as far as calling it "revolutionary." But how revolutionary is this draft document? For those seeking smooth transition to democracy, they are going to be hugely disappointed. In many critical areas, it seems as if the reform commission used a thesaurus to change words to make it sound like a real change is happening. But the reality is otherwise. The King will continue to rule, may be not so directly now yet certainly via proxy....
[Security and Politics] Arab Revolts: Painful Transitions, Hopeful Future
North Africans are going through unusual times. Most nations there are attempting to plan the reformation of their political systems in an environment full of risks. One of them, Libya, precipitated into a civil war and the embattled Muamar Gaddafi is still entrenched in his bunkers directing the terminal destruction of his nation. Libya’s recovery when the conflict ends will not be smooth either. A new Libya will have to reinvent a new constitution, new institutions, new leaders and tribes willing to respect each others....
[Security and Politics] The other dimension of the virtual space in the revolution of freedom in Tunisia: from Facebook to Streetbook
By Dr. Samir Garbaya*: The Revolution that started in Tunisia on December 18, 2010 is having major geostrategic implications. A paradigm shift is now forcing the West to reconsider where it stood prior and during the revolution. The West was overwhelmed by the issue of stability and unquestionably supported repressive regimes in the Arab world. ...
[Security and Politics] Can Bouteflika Deliver Democracy to his People?
[By Arezki Daoud | The North Africa Journal] At the end of a 20 minute-televised speech, the Algerian President, Abdelaziz Bouteflika pledged that he will be personally the guarantor of his new reform agenda. Under mounting pressure, Bouteflika went on television on Friday, April 15, 2011 as his country has been facing unprecedented levels of protests from a broad swath of the active and unemployed populations, while evolving in a deeply disrupted region....
[Security and Politics] The Tunisian Military: An Honorable Institution with Revenge in Mind
[By Arezki Daoud | daoud@north-africa.com | 508-981-6937 | Twitter: @northafrica] The Tunisian defense forces acted honorably as their country faced a major political crisis. By deciding not to intervene, General Rachid Ammar and his men and women in uniform showed unparallel professionalism that most Arab countries’ military lack. By doing so, they accelerated the demise of the dictator, responding to the wishes of the Tunisian people. But were the armed forces simply and squarely abiding by their constitutional duties or were they motivated by a sense of payback and revenge against Ben Ali? Information from Tunis suggests that military role was motivated by a little bit of both....
[Security and Politics] The King's Speech: Good Start but Incomplete!
[By Arezki Daoud | daoud@north-africa.com | 508-981-6937 | Twitter: @northafrica] Under pressure from the street, the King of Morocco Mohamed VI recently gave a highly anticipated speech on his political reform agenda. Although no doubt the speech provided some positive news, deflating popular pressure, and moving Morocco one step forward, many more steps are needed to fulfill and comply with the legitimate demands of Morocco’s youth and the pro-democracy movement. ...
[Security and Politics] Civil War in Libya: From the Euphoria of a Revolution to a Protracted Conflict
[By Arezki Daoud | daoud@north-africa.com | US+508-981-6937] The plot is set. Muamar Gaddafi cannot leave his country without risking an immediate arrest. He cannot give up Tripoli easily or else he will find himself without hostages and risk being killed by the Libyan people. Cornered as a mad beast, he has nowhere to go and will fight until the last bullet as his son promised. With that in mind, unless a miracle happens, like a foreign military intervention, the Libyan civil war could go on for a long while. ...
[Security and Politics] Defection of Moussa Koussa Means the Gaddafi Regime is Crumbling
[By Arezki Daoud | daoud@north-africa.com | US+508-981-6937] The defection of Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa (hear podcast at bottom of story) is indicative of a regime that is steadily and surely collapsing. Koussa is not a man who gives up easily, and if and when he does it simply means there is nothing else to gain by staying with his boss. Indeed Moussa Koussa defected on Wednesday when he decided to leave for London. Koussa is one of Gaddafi’s closest aids. He is as close as one can get to the mad man of North Africa. With him and others surrounding Gaddafi leaving, it confirms our earlier prediction of a regime that is bound to slowly extinguish itself like a fire dying without oxygen. ...
[Security and Politics] With Ben Ali on the Run and Gaddafi Fighting for his Life is a Unified Maghreb a Fading Dream?
[By Nasima Alli and Arezki Daoud] All eyes are currently focused on the revolutions taking place in the Middle East and North Africa. It started with mini rumblings in Algeria over the price of foods and a housing distribution program gone bad during the month of December 2010. The wave of discontent quickly progressed to Tunisia, then Egypt, now Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, Jordan, and even the sheltered Saudi Arabia. No Arab ruler and beyond feel so vulnerable....
[Security and Politics] Security Council OKs No-Fly Zone over Libya, World Rallies against Gaddafi
[The North Africa Journal] The Security Council authorized on March 17, 2011 the use of force in Libya to protect civilians from attack, specifically in the eastern city of Benghazi, which Colonel Muammar Gaddafi has reportedly said he will storm tonight to end a revolt against his regime....
[Other Affairs] After the Quake in Japan, Is North Africa Ready?
[By Arezki Daoud] The intensity of the March 2011 Japan earthquake was unlike anything else we have witnessed in modern times. This was no doubt of epic proportions, the biggest earthquake to hit Japan since records began. Japan's Meteorological Agency says the quake struck with a magnitude of 8.8 on the Richter scale. Then that event was followed by deadly Tsunami waves hitting Japan from Hokkaido in the north to Okinawa in the south....
[Security and Politics] Niger Presidential Election Results: Yet another Victory for Muamar Gaddafi
[The North Africa Journal | By Arezki Daoud] While Muamar Gaddafi has been working hard to regain the momentum in his country’s eastern provinces, he has clearly made political gains elsewhere. First was the inability of the G8 nations to agree on how to stop him and his killing machine. Then it was the presidential elections in Niger, where he financed an opposition leader to gain further influence in the Sahel/Sahara region. When one wonders how he has the ability to buy foreign mercenaries, consider the way he influences many African nations and their future, including Niger....
[Security and Politics] A Tumultuous North Africa
[The North Africa Journal | By Arezki Daoud] It is no business as usual in North Africa. Two dictators have been toppled, a civil war is underway, wind of reform is seemingly sweeping across the region with a highly unpredictable outcome. The volatility of the situation means that the hope of democracy and progress that one felt one day, turns into despair and stress the following....
[Social and Labor Affairs] International Women’s Day and Its Significance to the Arab World
By Leila Hanafi: Improving women’s rights is crucial to achieving nearly all of the United Nations (UN) Millennium Development Goals, the global development framework adopted by the UN in 2000 for improving people's lives and combating poverty in a sustained and sustainable way by 2015. ...
[Security and Politics] Can Shokri Ghanem Step In and Should Libya Become a Federated State?
[By Alessandro Bruno and Arezki Daoud] As Libya slides down the abyss of protracted political turmoil, the main question remains who will succeed the leadership of Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi. Unlike Egypt and Tunisia, Libya has no viable institutions, including the army, able to act as a glue and pilot a transition period. Qadhafi is not the president of Libya in the same way that Ben Ali or Mubarak was in Tunisia and Egypt. Qadhafi’s official role is ‘Brother leader of the Fatah Revolution’, a role that has no possible successor. ...
[Security and Politics] Tunisia PM Ghannouchi Quits, Veteran Politician Essebsi is Replacement
Mohammed Ghannouchi, Tunisia’s long time Prime Minister under the infamous Ben Ali, and then interim Premier in the current government, announced his resignation today, Sunday February 27, 2011. His assignment as interim PM has been rocked with controversies, as millions of Tunisians were not comfortable with a former regime operative leading the transition, despite his status of a technocrat....
[Security and Politics] Ghaddafi’s Obscure Exit Plan and Tribe Alliance against him Spell Trouble for Libyan Oil Fields
[Arezki Daoud | The North Africa Journal] While Libya’s share of the world energy sector is not substantial in itself, it maintains some 10% market share of the European Union’s imports and that’s not a small number. The Libyans have been aggressive expanding their reach of international markets as they continued to raise production. They have made substantial inroads in the Southern Europe, in particular Italy, as well as Germany. So any protracted disruption to production or along the supply chain could cause sustained stress in the international oil markets. The enfolding drama in Libya could have a much bigger damaging effect due to market psychology, and today the news from Libya is not good. ...
[Security and Politics] Muamar Ghaddafi and his Bloody Finishing
[Arezki Daoud | The North Africa Journal] Can Muamar Ghaddafi really make it until March or will the Arab revolution add a new name in its February head-hunting list? It looks as if four decades of Muamar’s reign of terror are coming to an end. Many of his key diplomats have resigned and have been mounting a media attack against him. His representatives abroad no longer represent him. At home, he is no doubt currently looking for a new place to land and I have the weird feeling that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia will come to the rescue of his brotherly dictator like he did for Ben Ali and Mubarak. Muamar's exit though is not without turmoil. On the ground, the Libyan people are facing”genocide", a term used by Ibrahim Dabbashim, the second man in command in the Libyan mission in the UN. ...
[Security and Politics] Libya: No Easy Options Even after Muamar Ghaddafi is Gone
[The North Africa Journal | Alessandro Bruno and Arezki Daoud] During his 41 years in power, Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi has built an idiosyncratic system of governance that is so unique that in the face of an unprecedented crisis, it could only collapse. There is no continuity built into the system. Qadhafi holds no official position or title; he has simply been the Brother Leader of the Revolution, or the Guide; he has never been the president, as some analysts have erroneously called him. However, while western governments (and surely many Libyans) are bewildered by the Libyan system, in the same way one would be curious about a train wreck, Qadhafi has proven on several occasions that he is no ordinary fool. ...
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