Civil War in Libya: From the Euphoria of a Revolution to a Protracted Conflict
[By Arezki Daoud | email@example.com | US+508-981-6937] The plot is set. Muamar Gaddafi cannot leave his country without risking an immediate arrest. He cannot give up Tripoli easily or else he will find himself without hostages and risk being killed by the Libyan people. Cornered as a mad beast, he has nowhere to go and will fight until the last bullet as his son promised. With that in mind, unless a miracle happens, like a foreign military intervention, the Libyan civil war could go on for a long while.
For now, Muamar Gaddafi is entrenched in his bunker in Tripoli and makes the occasional trip outside to meet and greet his supporters or take interviews with foreign reporters. Foreign pressure, although continuously mounting, is not enough to convince him that he is no longer a legitimate ruler. Within the country, confusion dominates. One day it is the euphoria in Benghazi, the next is fear of an offensive from the loyalists of the dictator. Despite the difficulty to predict what the outcome is, some elements of the Libyan civil war point us to the most likely scenario and that is the bloody end of the Gaddafi era.
Most Likely Scenario: First is the fast collapsing support to the Gaddafi regime. Every day since the start of hostilities key officials, from judges to military leaders to diplomats and civilians have been siding against Gaddafi and joined the opposition. As these operatives leave by the thousands, his supporters continued to pressure him to stay instead, in particular the Gaddafa tribe, whom he belongs. His sons, in particular the once soft-face of the regime and now the most hawkish Seif Al Islam know that their father’s fall automatically means their downfall too. Continue here | Not a subscribers? follow this link.