As Predicted, Bouteflika Wins Unchallenged

Bouteflika campaigning (Photo: La Tribune newspaper)

Abdelaziz Bouteflika will remain president of Algeria for the third time. His re-election is a conclusion of a multiyear strategy that included the weakening of opposition parties, the strengthening of presidential powers, the changes in the constitution to scrap term limit, ending with the April 9, 2009 elections which, according to the Interior Ministry, yielded more than 90% votes in favor of Bouteflika on the basis of a 74.11% turnout. Of course, these figures cannot be verified nor challenged, but they are what they are.

Bouteflika's reelection came as no surprise. As described in a forthcoming analysis in the North Africa Journal, the president's reelection machine was unmatched and had enormous resources. Facing Bouteflika were unknown entities, perhaps with the exception of Louisa Hanoune of the Workers Party. Despite being a household name, the Algerian culture would no permit a woman to take over power. This happens even in the most advanced industrial nations, let alone in the highly conservative Algeria.

While authorities spoke of a 74% global turnout, their reporting is in strike contrast to what observers saw and witnessed. According to many observers, voting booths did not attract as many people as reported by the official machinery. In many regions, irregularities were reported in particular in Bouira and Bejaïa.

Ironically, despite questionable elections, sub-standard rules of law, and questionable election statistics, the reelection of Bouteflika is likely to provide Algeria with another five years of stability of sort. The president managed to reduce the Algerian civil war of the 1990s to a manageable low intensity conflict by introducing a stick-and-carrot strategy to the Islamist insurgents. He also turned his attention to the military and managed to clean it up somewhat by sidelining some of the most extreme elements who have played a major role in the 1990s conflict. Owing to the booming oil prices, the Algerian economy sustained some level of growth and brought some sense of stability.

But the next five years are not going to be as easy for Bouteflika as the previous five. First, his health is rumored to be in bad shape. Many observers, including The North Africa Journal anticipated that he would not run for a third mandate precisely because of poor his health. But the man turned out to be resilient and challenging. Secondly, the oil economy that Algeria relies so heavily on is in turmoil. With the global economy in crisis and no sign of relief for the next year or so, Bouteflika starts his third mandate on shaky grounds. His challenge will be to drive Algeria into a new economic paradigm to expand Algeria's economic base beyond oil and gas and give it a shot to grow independently from the hydrocarbon sector. This is going to be difficult considering that Algeria will need so many things in does not possess, including fresh thinking and new people in charge of economic policy. The men in charge of the various economic ministries are probably not well suited for the task, and the president may have to be looking elsewhere for the right skills.